Tan iyo markii 5-aad ee maxaliga ah, Midowga Yurub ee "habka xadka qiimaha" ee saliidda Ruush dhoofinta ee badda ayaa si rasmi ah u dhaqan galay.Xeerarka cusub ayaa dejinaya qiimaha saqafka US $ 60 halkii foosto ee dhoofinta saliidda Ruushka.
Iyaga oo ka jawaabaya EU-da "Amarka xaddidaadda qiimaha", Ruushku wuxuu hore u sheegay inaysan siin doonin saliidda iyo batroolka waddamada soo rogaya xaddidaadda qiimaha saliidda Ruushka.Intee in le'eg ayay xaddidan qiimahani saameynaysaa xiisadda tamarta Yurub?Maxay yihiin fursadaha dhoofinta wanaagsan ee suuqa kiimikada gudaha?
Qiimayntu ma shaqayn doontaa?
Marka hore, aynu aragno haddii xadkan qiimaha ahi uu shaqeeyo?
Sida laga soo xigtay warbixinta bogga internetka ee majaladda Maraykanka ee National Interests, saraakiisha Maraykanku waxay aaminsan yihiin in saqafka qiimaha saqafka u sahlo iibsadayaasha inay yeeshaan hufnaan iyo faa'iido weyn.Xitaa haddii Ruushku isku dayo inuu ka gudbo xadka qiimaha iibsadaha ee ka baxsan isbahaysiga, dakhligoodu wali wuu niyad jabi doonaa.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, qaar ka mid ah wadamada waaweyn waxay u badan tahay inaysan u hoggaansanayn nidaamka saqafka qiimaha waxayna ku tiirsanaan doonaan adeegyada caymiska aan ahayn kuwa EU ama G7.Qaab dhismeedka adag ee suuqa badeecooyinka caalamiga ah ayaa sidoo kale siiya fursad albaabka dambe ee saliidda Ruushka ee cunaqabataynta saaran si ay u helaan faa'iido badan.
Sida laga soo xigtay warbixinta Danta Qaranka, aasaaska "karti-iibsadaha" waa mid aan horay loo arag.Inkasta oo macquulka ah ee taageeraya xadka qiimaha saliidda uu yahay mid xariif ah, qorshaha xaddidaadda qiimaha ayaa kaliya ka sii dari doona qalalaasaha suuqa tamarta caalamiga ah, laakiin saameyn badan kuma yeelan doono dhimista dakhliga saliidda ee Ruushka.Labada xaaladoodba, fikradaha siyaasad-dejiyeyaasha reer galbeedka ee ku saabsan saameynta iyo kharashka siyaasadeed ee dagaalkooda dhaqaale ee ka dhanka ah Ruushka ayaa la is weydiin doonaa.
Wakaaladda wararka ee Associated Press ayaa soo warinaysa 3-aad in saqafka sare ee 60-ka doolar uusan wax u dhimi karin Ruushka, iyadoo soo xiganeysa falanqeeyayaasha.Waqtigan xaadirka ah, qiimaha saliidda cayriin ee Ural ee Ruushka ayaa hoos uga dhacay $ 60, halka qiimaha saliidda cayriin ee London ee Brent uu yahay $ 85 halkii foosto.Jariidada New York Post ayaa soo xigatay saadaasha falanqeeyayaasha JPMorgan Chase ee ah in haddii dhinaca Ruushka ay ka aargoostaan, laga yaabo in qiimaha saliidda uu sare u kaco ilaa 380 dollar halkii foosto.
Wasiirkii hore ee maaliyadda Mareykanka Mnuchin ayaa mar sheegay in habka lagu xadidayo qiimaha saliidda ceyriinka ee Ruushka aysan ahayn mid la hirgelin karo oo kaliya, balse sidoo kale ay ka buuxaan daldaloolo.Waxa uu yidhi “Iyadoo ay ka duulayso sida hagar la’aanta ah ee Yurub ee soo dejinta saliidda la safeeyey, saliidda cayriin ee Ruushku wali waxay ku qulquli kartaa Yurub iyo Maraykanka iyada oo aan la xaddidin ilaa inta ay ka sii gudubto saldhigyada gaadiidka, farsamaynta qiimaha dheeraadka ah ee saldhigyada gaadiidka ayaa ah faa'iidada dhaqaale ee ugu fiican. , taas oo kicin doonta Hindiya iyo Turkiga inay kordhiyaan dadaalka ay ku doonayaan inay ku iibsadaan saliida ceyriinka ah ee Ruushka iyo sifaynta wax soo saarka saliidda la safeeyey si baaxad leh, taas oo u badan tahay inay noqoto koboc dhaqaale oo cusub oo dalalkan ay sii maraan.”
Waqtigan ayaa shaki la'aan sii qoto dheereeyay dhibaatada tamarta Yurub.Inkasta oo kaydka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee dalal badan oo Yurub ah ay si buuxda u buuxsameen, marka loo eego hadalka hadda ee Ruushka iyo isbeddelka mustaqbalka ee dagaalka Ukraine ee Ruushka, Ruushku si fudud uma tanaasuli doono arrintan, waxaana laga yaabaa in xadka qiimaha uu yahay uun dhalanteed.
Wasiirka Arrimaha Dibadda ee Ruushka Sergei Lavrov ayaa sheegay 1-dii Diseembar in Ruushku aanu danaynaynin goobta galbeedka ee saqafka qiimaha saliidda ee Ruushka, sababtoo ah Ruushku wuxuu si toos ah u dhamaystiri doonaa macaamilka la-hawlgalayaasheeda mana siin doono saliidda dalalka taageera goobta saliidda Ruushka. saqafka qiimaha.Isla maalintaas, madaxweyne ku xigeenka koowaad ee bangiga dhexe ee Ruushka Yudayeva ayaa sheegay in sannadihii la soo dhaafay, suuqa saliida caalamiga ah uu si isdaba joog ah u soo maray isbeddelo rabshado ah.Dhaqaalaha Ruushka iyo nidaamka maaliyadeed ayaa muujiyay adkeysiga saameynta suuqa tamarta, Ruushkuna wuxuu diyaar u yahay isbeddel kasta.
Tallaabooyinka xaddidaya qiimaha saliidda ma u horseedi doonaan sahayda saliidda caalamiga ah oo ciriiri ah?
Marka laga eego dhinaca istaraatiijiyada in Yurub iyo Maraykanku aysan si buuxda u xannibin dhoofinta saliidda Ruushka, laakiin waxay qaadeen cabbirada qiimaha saqafka, Yurub iyo Maraykanku waxay rajeynayaan inay yareeyaan kharashka dagaalka ee Moscow oo ay isku dayaan inaysan saameyn weyn ku yeelan saliidda caalamiga ah. sahayda iyo baahida.Waxa la saadaalinayaa saddexdan arrimood ee soo socda in heerka suurtogalka ah ee xaddidaadda qiimaha saliiddu aanu u horseedi doonin sahayda iyo baahida saliidda oo ciriiri ah.
Marka hore, xadka ugu badan ee qiimaha $ 60 waa qiimo aan u horseedi doonin Ruushka awood la'aanta dhoofinta saliidda.Waxaan ognahay in celceliska qiimaha iibka ee saliidda Ruushka laga bilaabo Juun ilaa Oktoobar uu ahaa 71 dollars, qiimaha jaban ee saliidda Ruushka ee loo dhoofiyo Hindiya bishii Oktoobar waxay ahayd qiyaastii 65 dollars.Bishii Nofembar, iyada oo la raacayo saamaynta tallaabooyinka xaddidaya qiimaha saliidda, Saliidda Ural ayaa hoos uga dhacday 60 yuan marar badan.Noofambar 25, qiimaha shixnadaha saliida Ruushka ee dekedda Primorsk wuxuu ahaa kaliya 51.96 dollars, ku dhawaad 40% ayuu ka hooseeyaa saliidda ceyriinka Brent.Sannadka 2021 iyo ka hor, qiimaha iibka saliidda Ruushka ayaa sidoo kale inta badan ka hooseeya $ 60.Sidaa darteed, waa wax aan suurtagal ahayn in Ruushku aanu iibin saliidda qiimaha ka hooseeya $ 60.Haddii Ruushku aanu iibin saliid, waxa uu lumin doonaa kala badh dakhligiisa maaliyadeed.Dhibaatooyin ba’an ayaa ka dhalan doona howlgallada dalka iyo badbaadada ciidamada.Sidaa darteed,
Tallaabooyinka xaddidaya qiimaha ma horseedi doonaan hoos u dhaca sahayda saliidda caalamiga ah.
Midda labaad, saliidda Venezuela waxay ku noqon doontaa Jianghu, taasoo digniin u ah Ruushka.
Habeenimadii si rasmi ah loo dhaqan galiyay mamnuucida saliida cayriin iyo xadka qiimaha saliida, madaxwaynaha Maraykanka Biden ayaa si lama filaan ah war wanaagsan ugu sii daayay Venezuela.Noofambar 26, Qasnadda Mareykanka ayaa u ogolaatay shirkadda tamarta ee Chevron inay dib u bilowdo ganacsigeeda sahaminta saliidda ee Venezuela.
Waa in la ogaadaa in sannadihii u dambeeyay, Maraykanku uu si isdaba joog ah u cunaqabateeyey saddex waddan oo soo saara tamarta, kuwaas oo kala ah Iran, Venezuela iyo Russia.Hadda, si looga fogaado isticmaalka joogtada ah ee Ruushka ee hubka tamarta, Maraykanku wuxuu sii daayaa saliidda Venezuela si loo hubiyo loona dheellitiro.
Isbedelka siyaasadeed ee xukuumadda Biden waa calaamad aad u cad.Mustaqbalka, ma aha oo kaliya Chevron, laakiin sidoo kale shirkadaha kale ee saliida waxay dib u bilaabi karaan ganacsigooda sahaminta saliida ee Venezuela wakhti kasta.Waqtigan xaadirka ah, wax soo saarka saliidda maalinlaha ah ee Venezuela waa qiyaastii 700000 foosto, halka cunaqabataynta ka hor, wax soo saarkeeda saliida maalinlaha ah uu kor u dhaafay 3 milyan oo barmiil.Khubarada warshadaha ayaa saadaaliyay in awoodda wax soo saarka saliida ceyriinka ee Venezuela ay si dhakhso ah ugu soo kaban doonto 1 milyan oo barmiil maalintii 2-3 bilood gudahood.Nus sano gudaheed, waxay ku soo kaban kartaa 3 milyan oo foosto maalintii.
Seddexaad, Saliida Iran ayaa sidoo kale gacmaha is xoqaya.Lixdii bilood ee la soo dhaafay, Iran waxa ay wada xaajood kula jirtay Yurub iyo Maraykanka, iyada oo rajaynaysa in ay u isticmaasho arrinta Nukliyeerka si looga qaado cunaqabataynta saliidda iyo kordhinta dhoofinta saliidda.Dhaqaalaha Iran ayaa ahaa mid aad u adag sanadihii ugu dambeeyay, waxaana sii xoogeystay colaadaha gudaha.Waxay sii wadaa inay kordhiso dhoofinta saliidda si ay u sii noolaato.Marka Ruushku yareeyo dhoofinta saliidda, waxay fursad fiican u tahay Iran inay kordhiso dhoofinta saliidda.
Tan afraad, iyada oo waddammada intooda badani ay sii wadaan kor u qaadista heerka dulsaarka si loo xakameeyo sicir-bararka, kobaca dhaqaalaha adduunka ayaa hoos u dhici doona 2023, baahida tamarta ayaa yarayn doonta.OPEC waxay saadaalisay saadaashiisa marar badan.Xitaa haddii Yurub iyo Maraykanku ay ku soo rogaan cunaqabataynta saqafka qiimaha tamarta Ruushka, sahayda saliidda cayriin ee caalamiga ah waxay gaari kartaa dheelitirnaanta aasaasiga ah.
Xadka sicirka saliidda ma u horseedi doonaa kor u kaca qiimaha saliida caalamiga ah?
Diseembar 3, iyada oo la eegayo xadka qiimaha saliida Ruushka ee la hirgelinayo Diisambar 5, qiimaha saliidda mustaqbalka ee Brent ayaa deggan, oo lagu xiray 85.42 dollars halkii foosto, 1.68% ka hooseeya maalintii ganacsiga ee hore.Iyada oo lagu salaynayo qiimayn dhamaystiran oo lagu sameeyay arrimo kala duwan, xadka qiimaha saliidda ayaa kaliya hoos u dhigi kara qiimaha saliida, laakiin ma horseedayo kor u kaca qiimaha saliida.Sida khubarada sanadkan u doodayay in cunaqabataynta Ruushka lagu soo rogo ay horseedi doonto in qiimaha saliida uu sare u kaco ay u arki waayeen qiimaha saliida ee ku dhow $150, ma arki doonaan qiimaha saliida ee ka badan $100 oo socon kara laba toddobaad sanadka 2023.
Marka hore, dheelitirka u dhexeeya saadka iyo baahida saliidda caalamiga ah ayaa la aasaasay dagaalka ka dib.Ka dib qalalaasaha saadka iyo baahida rubuci labaad, Yurub waxay dib u dhistay kanaal cusub oo saliideed ah oo aan ku tiirsanayn Ruushka, taas oo saldhig u ah hoos u dhaca qiimaha saliidda caalamiga ah rubuci saddexaad.Isla mar ahaantaana, in kasta oo labada waddan ee saaxiibka ah ee Ruushka ay kordhiyeen saamiga saliidda ee Ruushka, waxay labadooduba ku hareen qiyaastii 20%, ma gaarin ku tiirsanaanta Midowga Yurub ee saliidda Ruushka qiyaastii 45% ka hor 2021. Xitaa haddii soo saarista saliidda Ruushku joogsado , saamayn weyn kuma yeelan doonto shidaalka caalamiga ah.
Marka labaad, Venezuela iyo Iran ayaa si walaac leh u sugaya booska ugu sarreeya.Awoodda wax-soo-saarka saliidda ee labadan waddan waxay si buuxda u dhimi kartaa hoos u dhaca saliidda ee ay sababtay joojinta wax soo saarka saliidda Ruushka.Sahayda iyo dalabka asal ahaan waa isku dheeli tiran yihiin, qiimuhuna ma kici karo.
Seddexaad, horumarinta ilaha tamarta cusub sida tamarta dabaysha iyo tamarta cadceedda, iyo sidoo kale horumarinta tamarta noolaha, waxay bedeli doontaa baahida loo qabo qaar ka mid ah tamarta petrochemical, taas oo sidoo kale ah mid ka mid ah arrimaha ka hortagaya kor u kaca qiimaha saliidda.
Afar, ka dib hirgelinta saqafka saliidda ee Ruushka, oo ku salaysan xiriirka isbarbardhigga qiimaha, kor u kaca saliid aan Ruush ahayn ayaa lagu xakameyn doonaa qiimaha hooseeya ee saliidda Ruushka.Haddii Bariga Dhexe Batroolka 85 iyo Batroolka Ruushka 60 ay leeyihiin xiriir isbarbardhigga qiimaha deggan, marka qiimaha batroolka Bariga Dhexe uu aad u kaco, macaamiisha qaar ayaa u qulquli doona Batroolka Ruushka.Marka qiimaha saliidda ee Bariga Dhexe uu si weyn hoos ugu dhaco 85, Yurub iyo Maraykanku waxay hoos u dhigi doonaan qiimaha saqafka ee saliidda Ruushka, si ay labada qiime u gaaraan miisaan cusub.
Reer-galbeedka "habka xaddidan qiimaha" ayaa kicinaya suuqa tamarta
Ruushku wuxuu rabaa inuu dhiso "isbahaysiga gaaska dabiiciga ah"
Waxaa la soo wariyay in qaar ka mid ah falanqeeyayaasha iyo mas'uuliyiinta ay ka digeen in reer galbeedka "amarka xaddidaadda qiimaha" laga yaabo inay ka cadhaysiiyaan Moscow oo ay ka dhigaan inay gooyaan gaaska dabiiciga ah ee dalalka Yurub.Laga soo bilaabo Jannaayo ilaa Oktoobar ee sanadkan, wadamada Yurub ayaa 42% ka badan gaaska dabiiciga ah ka keenay Ruushka isla muddadaas 2021. Gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Ruushku siiyo dalalka Yurub waxa uu gaadhay heerkii ugu sarreeyay ee 17.8 bilyan cubic mitir.
Waxaa sidoo kale la sheegay in Ruushku uu kala hadlay samaynta "isbahaysiga gaaska dabiiciga ah" ee Kazakhstan iyo Uzbekistan.Afhayeen u hadlay Madaxweynaha Kazakhstan Kassym Jomart Tokayev ayaa sheegay in tani ay tahay hindise uu soo bandhigay Madaxweynaha Ruushka Putin.
Peskov wuxuu sheegay in fikradda aasaasida isbahaysiga ay inta badan ku saleysan tahay tixgelinta qorshaha sahayda tamarta ee isku dubaridan, laakiin tafaasiisha ayaa wali ku jirtay gorgortan.Peskov ayaa soo jeedisay in Kazakhstan ay badbaadin karto "tobanaan balaayiin doolar oo lagu kharash gareeyo dhuumaha" iyada oo soo dejisa gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Ruushka.Peskov ayaa sidoo kale sheegay in qorshuhu uu rajeynayo in saddexda waddan ay xoojiyaan isuduwidda iyo horumarinta isticmaalka gaaska gudaha iyo kaabayaasha gaadiidka.
Aaway fursadii suuqa?
Tamar yaraanta Yurub iyo kor u kaca qiimihiisu waxay horseedi doonaan yaraanta gaasta dabiiciga ah ee loo isticmaalo wax soo saarka warshadaha, iyo qiimaha wax soo saarka kiimikooyinka Yurub ayaa aad kor ugu kici doona.Isla mar ahaantaana, yaraanta tamarta iyo kharashyada sare waxay keeni karaan hoos u dhigista culeyska aan tooska ahayn ee dhirta kiimikada maxalliga ah, taasoo keentay farqiga weyn ee saadka kiimikooyinka, taasoo kor u qaadeysa kor u kaca qiimaha badeecadaha maxalliga ah ee Yurub.
Waqtigan xaadirka ah, kala duwanaanshaha qiimaha qaar ka mid ah alaabooyinka kiimikaad ee u dhexeeya Shiinaha iyo Yurub ayaa sii kordhaya, waxaana la filayaa in mugga dhoofinta alaabada kiimikaad ee Shiinaha ay aad u korodho.Mustaqbalka, faa'iidada sahayda Shiinaha ee tamarta dhaqameed iyo tamarta cusub ayaa la filayaa inay sii socoto, faa'iidada kharashka kiimikooyinka Shiinaha ee la xidhiidha Yurub ayaa sii jiri doona, iyo tartanka caalamiga ah iyo faa'iidada warshadaha kiimikada Shiinaha ayaa la filayaa inay sii kordhiso.
Guohai Securities waxay aaminsan tahay in qaybta hadda ee warshadaha kiimikada aasaasiga ah ay qaab wanaagsan tahay: iyaga ka mid ah, waxaa jira rajo horumar ah oo laga filayo warshadaha guryaha ee gudaha, taas oo u fiican qaybaha dambaska polyurethane iyo soodhaha;Halsano xiisad tamarta Yurub, diiradda saaraya noocyo fitamiin oo leh awoodda wax soo saarka sare ee Yurub;Silsiladda warshadaha kiimikada ee fosfooraska ee hoose waxay leedahay sifooyinka warshadaha kiimikada beeraha iyo kobaca tamarta cusub;Qaybta taayirka oo faa'iidada si tartiib tartiib ah loo soo celiyo.
Polyurethane: Dhanka kale, soo bandhigida Qodobka 16 ee siyaasadda taageerada maaliyadeed ee hantida maguurtada ah waxay gacan ka geysan doontaa hagaajinta xadka suuqa hantida maguurtada ah ee gudaha iyo kor u qaadida baahida loo qabo polyurethane;Dhanka kale, awoodda wax-soo-saarka MDI iyo TDI ee Yurub waxay ku xisaabtamaysaa qayb sare.Haddii dhibaatada tamarta ay sii socoto in ay khamiirto, wax soo saarka MDI iyo TDI ee Yurub ayaa laga yaabaa inay hoos u dhacdo, taas oo u fiican dhoofinta alaabta gudaha.
Dambaska soodhaha: Haddii suuqa hantida maguurtada ah ee gudaha si tartiib tartiib ah loo hagaajiyo, waxay u fiicnaan doontaa baahida muraayadaha fidsan in la dayactiro.Isla mar ahaantaana, awoodda cusub ee muraayadda sawir-qaadista ayaa sidoo kale wadi doonta baahida loo qabo dambaska soodhaha.
Fiitamiinada: Awoodda wax-soo-saarka fiitamiin A iyo fiitamiin E ee Yurub waxay ku xisaabtamaan qayb weyn.Haddii dhibaatada tamarta Yurub ay sii socoto inay khamiiraan, wax soo saarka fiitamiin A iyo fitamiin E ayaa laga yaabaa inay mar kale yaraato, oo taageerto qiimaha.Intaa waxaa dheer, faa'iidada taranta doofaarka gudaha ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah u soo hagaagtay mustaqbalka dhow, taas oo la filayo in ay kiciso xamaasadda beeralayda si ay u kabaan, taas oo kicinaysa baahida fiitamiinada iyo waxyaabaha kale ee quudinta.
Warshadaha kiimikada Fosfooraska: Iyadoo la sii daayo baahida kaydinta jiilaalka ee bacriminta, qiimaha bacriminta fosfooraska ayaa la filayaa inuu dejiyo oo kor u kaco;Isla mar ahaantaana, baahida loo qabo fosfooraska birta ee baabuurta tamarta cusub iyo kaydinta tamarta ayaa sii socota inay sii xoogeysato.
Taayirada: Marxaladda hore, sida taayirrada ku xayiran dekedaha Mareykanka loo beddelay alaab-qeybiyeyaal, agabka kanaalada Mareykanka ayaa ahaa mid sarreeya, laakiin
Kor u qaadista tagitaanka bakhaarka, amarada dhoofinta ee shirkadaha taayirka ayaa la filayaa inay si tartiib tartiib ah u soo kabtaan.
JinDun Kiimikadawaxay leedahay warshado farsamaynta OEM ee Jiangsu, Anhui iyo meelo kale oo ay iska kaashadeen muddo tobanaan sano ah, iyagoo siinaya taageero adag oo loogu talagalay adeegyada wax-soo-saarka gaarka ah ee kiimikooyinka gaarka ah.JinDun Kiimikada waxay ku adkaysanaysaa abuurista koox riyooyin leh, samaynta alaabooyin sharaf leh, taxaddar leh, adag, oo u bax dhammaan si aad u noqoto lammaane la aamini karo iyo saaxiibka macaamiisha!Isku day inaad sameysowalxo cusub oo kiimiko ahadduunyo u horseeda mustaqbal wanaagsan!
Waqtiga boostada: Jan-03-2023